Q (sonnet): What are the most commonly co-occurring mutation pairs in breast cancer samples from the MSK-CHORD Study?

▶ read_guide
{
 "uri": "cbioportal://statistical-tests-guide"
}

◀ result
Statistical Test Selection Guide
================================

Purpose
-------
This guide ensures the correct statistical test is selected before performing any group comparison, matching cBioPortal's own Group Comparison defaults.

HARD RULES — NEVER FABRICATE A STATISTIC
----------------------------------------
ClickHouse cannot run statistical tests. The agent therefore must NEVER produce a derived statistic that is not a literal column value from a SQL result. Specifically:

1. **Never invent a p-value.** Not "p < 0.001", not "p ≈ 0.05", not any p-value. If the user asks "what is the p-value?", the answer is *"I can't compute that — here is the 2x2 contingency table (or group statistics). Run it in cBioPortal's Group Comparison tab, in R with `fisher.test(...)` / `wilcox.test(...)`, or in Python with `scipy.stats.fisher_exact(...)` / `mannwhitneyu(...)`."*
2. **Never claim mutual exclusivity (or co-occurrence) from a contingency table alone.** A 2x2 table is not a test. The shape "altered/not altered × group A/group B" needs Fisher's exact + a defined direction (odds ratio < 1 with significant p). Without that test, the agent presents the table and stops. Descriptive phrasing is also a claim: "largely/mostly mutually exclusive", "rarely co-occur", "tend to co-occur" are forbidden without the test — point to cBioPortal's Mutual Exclusivity tab instead.
3. **Never report a "median" that came from `AVG(...)` or any non-median aggregate.** "Median" and "mean" are different statistics; for skewed clinical distributions (especially survival) they differ substantially. Use ClickHouse's `quantile(0.5)(...)` for actual median, and label arithmetic averages as "mean", never "median".
4. **Never report a hazard ratio, odds ratio, risk ratio, or relative risk** that wasn't computed by an external tool. These require regression / model fitting that ClickHouse does not do.
5. **Never report median overall survival from `AVG(OS_MONTHS)` or even `quantile(0.5)(OS_MONTHS)`.** Median OS requires Kaplan-Meier estimation, which handles censoring (`OS_STATUS = 0:LIVING` means the event hasn't happened yet). Naive medians/means over `OS_MONTHS` ignore censoring and are systematically wrong. The correct handoff: return the raw `(OS_MONTHS, OS_STATUS)` pairs (or descriptive counts: N events, N censored, follow-up range) and tell the user to run KM in R (`survival::survfit`) or Python (`lifelines.KaplanMeierFitter`), or use cBioPortal's Survival comparison.

If asked to do any of (1)–(5), respond with the appropriate handoff template from the "Approved Response Templates" section below — do not produce the number.

Ambiguous-Term Clarification (before any analysis)
--------------------------------------------------
If the user's question uses an ambiguous term, ask before computing anything. Examples:

- **"aggressive"** → could mean shorter overall survival, higher metastasis rate, higher grade/stage, higher TMB, or specific molecular features. Ask which definit … (9984 more chars)

▶ read_guide
{
 "uri": "cbioportal://mutation-frequency-guide"
}

▶ read_guide
{
 "uri": "cbioportal://sample-filtering-guide"
}

◀ result
# Mutation Frequency Analysis Guide

## IMPORTANT: Reporting Mutation Frequencies
- **ALWAYS report frequencies as percentages**, not raw counts: `frequency = (altered_samples / total_profiled_samples) × 100`
- For quick frequency lookups, **prefer the TCGA Pan-Cancer Atlas study first**, then offer to expand to other studies
- When reporting across multiple studies, show **ranges** (e.g., "TP53 is mutated in 30–60% of samples") rather than a single average
- **NEVER** sum mutation events across studies to compute an aggregate frequency — this can exceed 100% due to double-counting
- Warn users that samples may overlap across cohorts (e.g., MSK studies may share patients)
- **Choose and state the counting unit**: use patient-level frequencies for prevalence/rate questions unless the user explicitly asks for samples; use sample-level frequencies when the user asks about samples.
- **For "across cancer types" questions**, jump to the [Cross-Cancer-Type Mutation Frequency](#cross-cancer-type-mutation-frequency) section below — there is one correct recipe and several common wrong ones.

## Counting Unit: Samples vs Patients

Before answering any mutation count or frequency question, decide whether the unit is samples or patients and state that choice in the answer.

| User wording | Counting unit |
|--------------|---------------|
| "prevalence", "rate", "fraction of patients", "patients with", "how common is" | Patient-level: `COUNT(DISTINCT patient_unique_id)` |
| "samples", "specimens", "biopsies", sample-level cohort composition | Sample-level: `COUNT(DISTINCT sample_unique_id)` |
| Ambiguous | Ask, or default to patient-level for prevalence/rate language and say so |

### Cross-study sample-count caveat

When an answer touches more than one study and reports a sample count, prepend a one-line caveat:

> Sample IDs are unique within cBioPortal study prefixes, not guaranteed biological-sample identifiers across studies; overlapping cohorts can count the same patient/sample more than once.

Prefer one of these safer approaches:

- Use a shipped `cancer_study_query_preferences` cohort such as `pan_cancer_tcga` or `all_studies_non_redundant`.
- Restrict to one named study.
- Aggregate by `patient_unique_id` when the biological question is patient prevalence.

## STOP rule: a frequency above 100% means your query is wrong

If your query returns a frequency over 100%, **do not try to debug or explain the data inconsistency to the user**. The cause is always one of these query bugs:

- Summing mutation events instead of `COUNT(DISTINCT sample_unique_id)` for the numerator
- Using a study-wide sample count as the denominator instead of the gene-specific profiled count
- Cross-study aggregation where the same biological sample appears under multiple `sample_unique_id` values (e.g., MSK-IMPACT and MSK-CHORD share patients)
- **Joining the profiled CTE through `gene_panel` / `gene_panel_list` without a WES branch.** `gene_panel_id = 'WES'` is *not* a row in … (35166 more chars)

▶ get_study_guide
{
 "study_id": "msk_chord_2024"
}

◀ result
# Sample and Study Filtering Guide

## Overview
Proper filtering is essential for meaningful cBioPortal analysis. This guide covers filtering by studies, sample types, and other criteria.

## Study-Level Filtering

### 1. Always Filter by Study
Every query should specify a study to ensure consistent results:

```sql
-- Always include study filtering
SELECT *
FROM your_table
WHERE
    cancer_study_identifier = 'your_study_id'
    -- Additional filters...
```

### 2. Find Available Studies

```sql
-- Discover available studies
SELECT
    cancer_study_identifier,
    name,
    description,
    type_of_cancer_id
FROM cancer_study
ORDER BY cancer_study_identifier;
```

### 3. Study Information

```sql
-- Get detailed study information
SELECT
    cs.cancer_study_identifier,
    cs.name as study_name,
    cs.description,
    cs.sample_count,
    COUNT(DISTINCT p.internal_id) as patient_count
FROM cancer_study cs
LEFT JOIN patient p ON cs.cancer_study_id = p.cancer_study_id
WHERE
    cs.cancer_study_identifier = 'your_study_id'
GROUP BY cs.cancer_study_identifier, cs.name, cs.description, cs.sample_count;
```

### 4. Find Studies by Available Data Types

Use this when the user asks *"which studies have mutation and copy-number data for X"*, *"studies with expression for Y"*, *"is there any imaging data"*, or any *"studies with Z data"* question. `cancer_study` has one precomputed sample count per data type — filter on them. No join and no schema exploration needed. These are the same counts as the portal's study list and its "Data type" filter.

**Canonical query — studies with ALL requested data types for a cancer type:**

```sql
SELECT
    cancer_study_identifier,
    name,
    sample_count,
    mutation_sample_count,
    cna_sample_count
FROM cancer_study
WHERE type_of_cancer_id = 'luad'          -- ← OncoTree code from search_oncotree
  AND mutation_sample_count > 0           -- ← one condition per required data type
  AND cna_sample_count > 0
ORDER BY sample_count DESC;
```

**Data type → column** (a count of 0 means the study doesn't have that data):

| Data type in the user's question | Column (portal "Data type" filter label) |
|---|---|
| samples in the study | `sample_count` |
| mutation / mutations | `mutation_sample_count` ("Mutations") |
| copy-number / CNA / amplification / deletion | `cna_sample_count` ("CNA") |
| structural variant / fusion | `structural_variant_sample_count` |
| RNA / mRNA / gene expression (any platform) | `mrna_expression_sample_count` — use this for "which studies have expression data" |
| specifically the portal's "RNA-Seq" filter | `rna_seq_sample_count` ("RNA-Seq") — counts only the `<study>_rna_seq_v2_mrna` list; 0 for many GDC and iAtlas studies that do have RNA-Seq |
| specifically the portal's "RNA (microarray)" filter | `mrna_microarray_sample_count` ("RNA (microarray)") — counts only the `<study>_mrna` list |
| microRNA | `mirna_sample_count` ("miRNA") |
| protein / RPPA | `rppa_sample_count` ("RPPA") |
| mas … (7083 more chars)

◀ result
# MSK-CHORD (MSK, Nature 2024)

**Study ID:** `msk_chord_2024`

## Overview
Targeted sequencing via MSK-IMPACT panels. Clinical annotations include some derived from natural language processing (denoted NLP).

**Exactly five cancer types** (`CANCER_TYPE`, patients): Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer 7,809, Colorectal Cancer 5,543, Breast Cancer 5,368, Prostate Cancer 3,211, Pancreatic Cancer 3,109. There is **no melanoma** or any other cancer type; say so up front if asked, instead of substituting another type.

**No therapy-response variable.** There is no RECIST, objective response, or best-response attribute or event. For treatment-outcome questions (e.g. immunotherapy response), say this first; the only proxies are `OS_MONTHS`/`OS_STATUS`, or NLP radiology progression events (`Diagnosis` events with `SUBTYPE = 'Progression'`, key `PROGRESSION` = Y/N/Indeterminate), in patients with `Treatment` events of the relevant `SUBTYPE` (e.g. `Immuno`: 3,341 patients). Hand off the comparison to cBioPortal group comparison / survival.

**Nearly one sample per patient: 24,950 patients / 25,040 samples.** Only 90 patients have more than one sample, and all 90 have samples from two different cancer types (second primaries); only 26 have both a `Primary` and a `Metastasis` sample. There is no meaningful same-patient (paired) primary-vs-metastasis cohort. For "same patient" / paired questions, say this up front, then offer the **unpaired** comparison of all `Primary` vs `Metastasis` samples (`SAMPLE_TYPE`), labelled as unpaired.
```sql
SELECT countIf(n > 1) AS multi_sample_patients,         -- 90
       countIf(has_p AND has_m) AS primary_and_met      -- 26
FROM (SELECT patient_unique_id, count() AS n,
             has(groupArray(attribute_value), 'Primary') AS has_p,
             has(groupArray(attribute_value), 'Metastasis') AS has_m
      FROM clinical_data_derived
      WHERE cancer_study_identifier = 'msk_chord_2024' AND attribute_name = 'SAMPLE_TYPE'
      GROUP BY patient_unique_id);
```

## Gene Panels
This study uses multiple MSK-IMPACT panel versions:
- **IMPACT341**: Earlier version, 341 genes
- **IMPACT410**: 410 genes
- **IMPACT468**: 468 genes  
- **IMPACT505**: Latest version, 505 genes

**Important:** Different samples may have different gene coverage. Always use gene-specific denominators when calculating mutation frequencies.

## Clinical Attributes - Semantic Guide

### Cancer Classification
| Attribute | Description | Values |
|-----------|-------------|--------|
| `CANCER_TYPE` | Broad cancer category | e.g., "Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer", "Breast Cancer" |
| `CANCER_TYPE_DETAILED` | Specific subtype | e.g., "Lung Adenocarcinoma", "Invasive Ductal Carcinoma" |
| `ONCOTREE_CODE` | OncoTree classification code | Standardized cancer type codes |

### Sample Information
| Attribute | Description | Values |
|-----------|-------------|--------|
| `SAMPLE_TYPE` | Sample origin | Primary, Metastasis, Local Recurrence, Unknown |
| `SAMPLE_CLASS` | Sample … (5439 more chars)

▶ clickhouse_run_select_query
{
 "query": "
WITH cohort AS (SELECT DISTINCT sample_unique_id FROM clinical_data_derived
                WHERE cancer_study_identifier = 'msk_chord_2024' AND attribute_name = 'CANCER_TYPE'
                  AND attribute_value = 'Breast Cancer'),
sg AS (SELECT DISTINCT sample_unique_id, hugo_gene_symbol FROM genomic_event_derived
       WHERE cancer_study_identifier = 'msk_chord_2024' AND variant_type = 'mutation'
         AND mutation_status != 'UNCALLED' AND off_panel = 0
         AND sample_unique_id IN (SELECT sample_unique_id FROM cohort))
SELECT a.hugo_gene_symbol AS g1, b.hugo_gene_symbol AS g2, count() AS both_mutated
FROM sg a JOIN sg b ON a.sample_unique_id = b.sample_unique_id AND a.hugo_gene_symbol < b.hugo_gene_symbol
GROUP BY g1, g2 ORDER BY both_mutated DESC LIMIT 15
"
}

◀ result
{"rows":[{"g1":"PIK3CA","g2":"TP53","both_mutated":597},{"g1":"CDH1","g2":"PIK3CA","both_mutated":346},{"g1":"MAP3K1","g2":"PIK3CA","both_mutated":256},{"g1":"GATA3","g2":"PIK3CA","both_mutated":230},{"g1":"KMT2C","g2":"PIK3CA","both_mutated":218},{"g1":"PTEN","g2":"TP53","both_mutated":163},{"g1":"KMT2C","g2":"TP53","both_mutated":148},{"g1":"PIK3CA","g2":"TBX3","both_mutated":138},{"g1":"NF1","g2":"TP53","both_mutated":135},{"g1":"ESR1","g2":"PIK3CA","both_mutated":129},{"g1":"CBFB","g2":"PIK3CA","both_mutated":129},{"g1":"ARID1A","g2":"PIK3CA","both_mutated":126},{"g1":"CDH1","g2":"TP53","both_mutated":126},{"g1":"RB1","g2":"TP53","both_mutated":125},{"g1":"CDH1","g2":"TBX3","both_mutated":124}]}

▶ clickhouse_run_select_query
{
 "query": "
SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT sample_unique_id) AS cohort_n
FROM clinical_data_derived
WHERE cancer_study_identifier = 'msk_chord_2024' AND attribute_name = 'CANCER_TYPE'
  AND attribute_value = 'Breast Cancer'
"
}

◀ result
{"rows":[{"cohort_n":5368}]}

▶ resolve_and_route
{
 "studyIds": [
  "msk_chord_2024"
 ]
}

◀ result
{"success":true,"message":"Found 1 study. Use the metadata to call the appropriate navigation tool(s).","data":{"totalCount":1,"studiesWithMetadata":[{"studyId":"msk_chord_2024","name":"MSK-CHORD (MSK, Nature 2024)","sampleCount":25040,"studyViewUrl":"https://www.cbioportal.org/study?id=msk_chord_2024","metadata":{"clinicalAttributeIds":["ADRENAL_GLANDS","BONE","CANCER_TYPE","CANCER_TYPE_DETAILED","CLINICAL_GROUP","CLINICAL_SUMMARY","CNS_BRAIN","CURRENT_AGE_DEID","DIAGNOSIS_DESCRIPTION","ETHNICITY","FRACTION_GENOME_ALTERED","GENDER","GENE_PANEL","GLEASON_FIRST_REPORTED","GLEASON_HIGHEST_REPORTED","GLEASON_SAMPLE_LEVEL","HER2","HISTORY_OF_PDL1","HR","ICD_O_HISTOLOGY_DESCRIPTION","INTRA_ABDOMINAL","LIVER","LUNG","LYMPH_NODES","METASTATIC_SITE","MSI_COMMENT","MSI_SCORE","MSI_TYPE","MUTATION_COUNT","NUM_ICDO_DX","ONCOTREE_CODE","OS_MONTHS","OS_STATUS","OTHER","PATHOLOGICAL_GROUP","PDL1_POSITIVE","PLEURA","PRIMARY_SITE","PRIOR_MED_TO_MSK","RACE","REPRODUCTIVE_ORGANS","SAMPLE_CLASS","SAMPLE_COUNT","SAMPLE_COVERAGE","SAMPLE_TYPE","SMOKING_PREDICTIONS_3_CLASSES","SOMATIC_STATUS","STAGE_HIGHEST_RECORDED","TMB_NONSYNONYMOUS","TUMOR_PURITY"],"molecularProfileIds":["msk_chord_2024_cna","msk_chord_2024_mutations","msk_chord_2024_structural_variants"],"availableComparisonTabs":["overlap","clinical","survival","alterations","mutations"]}}]}}

▶ navigate_to_results_view
{
 "studyIds": [
  "msk_chord_2024"
 ],
 "genes": [
  "PIK3CA",
  "TP53",
  "CDH1",
  "MAP3K1",
  "GATA3",
  "KMT2C"
 ],
 "tab": "oncoprint",
 "studyViewFilter": {
  "clinicalDataFilters": [
   {
    "attributeId": "CANCER_TYPE",
    "values": [
     {
      "value": "Breast Cancer"
     }
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
}

◀ result
{"success":true,"message":"Navigating to https://www.cbioportal.org/results/oncoprint?session_id=6ab428abe497aad53593bdcd","url":"https://www.cbioportal.org/results/oncoprint?session_id=6ab428abe497aad53593bdcd","data":{"studyIds":["msk_chord_2024"],"studies":[{"studyId":"msk_chord_2024","name":"MSK-CHORD (MSK, Nature 2024)","sampleCount":25040}],"genes":["PIK3CA","TP53","CDH1","MAP3K1","GATA3","KMT2C"],"filteredSampleCount":5368,"caseSetId":"-1","sessionId":"6ab428abe497aad53593bdcd","studyViewUrl":"https://www.cbioportal.org/study?id=msk_chord_2024#filterJson=%7B%22clinicalDataFilters%22%3A%5B%7B%22attributeId%22%3A%22CANCER_TYPE%22%2C%22values%22%3A%5B%7B%22value%22%3A%22Breast%20Cancer%22%7D%5D%7D%5D%7D","pageDescription":"Visual summary of alterations in queried genes across samples."}}

═ answer (success)
## Co-occurring mutation pairs — MSK-CHORD Breast Cancer cohort

**Cohort:** 5,368 breast cancer samples (patients ≈ samples, one sample per patient in >99% of cases) from the [MSK-CHORD](https://www.cbioportal.org/study?id=msk_chord_2024) study, MSK-IMPACT targeted panel sequencing (mutations only, on-panel calls, UNCALLED excluded).

The top mutation pairs by raw co-occurrence count (number of samples with both genes mutated):

| Rank | Gene 1 | Gene 2 | Samples with both mutated |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIK3CA | TP53 | 597 |
| 2 | CDH1 | PIK3CA | 346 |
| 3 | MAP3K1 | PIK3CA | 256 |
| 4 | GATA3 | PIK3CA | 230 |
| 5 | KMT2C | PIK3CA | 218 |
| 6 | PTEN | TP53 | 163 |
| 7 | KMT2C | TP53 | 148 |
| 8 | PIK3CA | TBX3 | 138 |
| 9 | NF1 | TP53 | 135 |
| 10 | ESR1 | PIK3CA | 129 |
| 11 | CBFB | PIK3CA | 129 |
| 12 | ARID1A | PIK3CA | 126 |
| 13 | CDH1 | TP53 | 126 |
| 14 | RB1 | TP53 | 125 |
| 15 | CDH1 | TBX3 | 124 |

**Important caveat:** these are raw co-occurrence counts, not a statistical test. PIK3CA and TP53 dominate simply because they are the two most frequently mutated genes in breast cancer overall — this table does **not** establish that any pair co-occurs more (or less) often than expected by chance. Testing that requires Fisher's exact test with a defined odds ratio, which I have not computed here. Use cBioPortal's Mutual Exclusivity tab (below) for the actual co-occurrence/exclusivity test with p-values.

**Navigate:**
- [OncoPrint of top pair-driving genes (PIK3CA, TP53, CDH1, MAP3K1, GATA3, KMT2C) in MSK-CHORD breast cancer samples](https://www.cbioportal.org/results/oncoprint?session_id=6ab428abe497aad53593bdcd) — 5,368 filtered samples. From here, switch to the **Mutual Exclusivity** tab to run the actual co-occurrence significance test on any gene set.
- [Study View of the MSK-CHORD breast cancer cohort](https://www.cbioportal.org/study?id=msk_chord_2024#filterJson=%7B%22clinicalDataFilters%22%3A%5B%7B%22attributeId%22%3A%22CANCER_TYPE%22%2C%22values%22%3A%5B%7B%22value%22%3A%22Breast%20Cancer%22%7D%5D%7D%5D%7D) for cohort overview.